Two matches where the shape of the game is fairly clear: one side holds the ball and the shots, the other side's defence is stretched thin.
Atalanta against Parma: Atalanta create far more than Parma, around 1.6 expected goals against 0.8, and have scored 12 in five home games. Parma have scored just five in ten league games and their forwards are doubtful. Atalanta are missing several defenders and a few midfielders, but most of those absences were already there in the last three or four matches, so the poor run already includes them. I expect Atalanta to own territory and get the first goal; Parma have too little up front to punish the patched back line often. That's why I'm siding with Atalanta to win at home.
Newcastle against Everton: Newcastle shoot a lot, 28 shots and a big chance count in the cup defeat to Everton, but scored only once, so their finishing is due to come back toward their chances. Their first-choice goalkeeper and right-back are out, which makes the back line leakier, and Everton are a counter-attacking side that scores around 1.4 a game. A 2-1 or 2-2 type game is the central picture. That's why I'm on the goals in this one.
