Atalanta should have plenty of the ball against Parma's compact back five. The real test is whether those entries become clean shots before Parma can move the ball out to its runners. This game has the shape of a narrow lead changing hands, with the second supply into the box mattering as much as the first.
Éderson and Pašalić can find De Ketelaere and Zalewski between the lines, and that chain has produced recent goals. Parma have also absorbed heavy shot counts, with Troilo and Daffara resisting Udinese, while Touré and Romero have given them an outlet. Fabbian's pass for Lontani's late goal against Lazio shows another way to get a final touch after a long defensive spell.
Bernabé played Parma's previous match but is now out, so the first forward pass has to come from other midfielders. Atalanta lost Kristensen and Gaetano during the Fiorentina match, and Scalvini played much longer than planned in the reshuffled defence. That makes Parma's first break into Touré or a Valeri delivery especially relevant as the match stretches.
Atalanta's attacking links can earn a lead, but their patched cover and Parma's observed resistance make a clear separation less convincing. That's why I'm siding with Parma.
