Both matches put a strong attacking side against a compact defence with a direct route out. Atalanta can combine through the centre, while Benfica can send repeated wide deliveries into the box. The score shape in each game depends on the first reply and the clearance that follows.
Atalanta's De Ketelaere and Zalewski have a proven connection, while Parma can release Romero or Touré behind the home pressure. Atalanta's defensive rotation is limited after recent injuries; Parma's Bernabé is absent from the squad, but Nicolussi is available as an option after sitting out the last match. Parma's compact last line and direct outlet can hold the game in a narrow range. That's why I'm siding with Parma to stay close.
Benfica should have sustained wide supply to Pavlidis and its far-side runners. Alverca's last defeat followed an early red card, and Bojang then played most of the match in the replacement defence; the prior full-strength game showed direct passes and wing-back exits through Spencer and Chissumba. Those outlets can force Benfica's advanced players to turn and defend. That's why I'm siding with Alverca to keep the score close.
