Two B.League games where the numbers behind the price were built somewhere else. Alvark's big scoring average comes from away routs against loose defences, while their home league games have stayed far tighter. San-en's strong record came against lighter frontcourts while they lost the battle on the boards. In both games, the size and pace of the opponent in this match matter more than the season averages.
Alvark against Utsunomiya Brex: Alvark score through three-point volume and lots of free throws, and they have put up 100-plus away from home. At home in the league their scores have run from 66 to 90, and three of their four home games stayed well within a normal total, including a much lower-scoring game against the same Saga side that conceded heavily to them away. Brex are a slow, half-court team that plays through Kell and Frazier one-on-one and shoot about 32 percent from three. Alvark's rebounding edge was built against weak frontcourts and disappeared against real bigs, and Brex's Fotu and Edwards are both playing. Brex have also been tidy with the ball lately, with just four and five turnovers in their last two games, which takes away the transition route that drives Alvark's big totals. I expect a measured half-court game decided late, so on this one I'm siding with the lower-scoring side of the total.
Ryukyu against San-en: San-en win with perimeter volume and late execution, and they have lost the boards to every strong frontcourt they've met, badly at Hiroshima and Kobe. Their wins over Ibaraki, Shinshu and Kobe came by two, two and four points. At home Ryukyu win with size: Cooley, Kawamata and Kevin Jones controlled the glass against Shiga, A Chiba and Gunma, and home opponents have shot about 28 percent from three in Okinawa. The schedule is the market's story, five games in eleven days with a Taiwan trip, but Ryukyu's earlier run of short-rest home games ended in comfortable wins. I expect San-en to shoot well early and Ryukyu's size to keep adding possessions from the second quarter on, with the game decided in the fourth. That's why I'm siding with Ryukyu, at home, with points in hand.
