Two continental nights with very different shapes. Al Hilal will have the ball against Shabab Al-Ahli, but the players who usually turn that pressure into a comfortable win are missing, and they face a well-rested block that has conceded once in this competition. In Bodo, two sides who both need a win meet on artificial turf, and each one's attack aims straight at the other's weak spot. One should be tight, the other open.
Al Hilal against Shabab Al-Ahli. Hilal's big numbers came with Neves as the deep passer, Summerville and Martinelli or Salem Al-Dawsari as the wide dribblers, and Neves on penalties. Summerville is suspended, Martinelli and Salem are injured, and Neves is reported rested. When Hilal fielded a stripped-down side at Shamal in this competition, they lost one to three. Jardine's Shabab are compact behind Ezatolahi and Maksimovic and break through Azmoun, who scored twice in a win at Al Ittihad on a third of the ball. They have lost by two or more only once in twenty, and they come in with seven days' rest to Hilal's three. Hilal's best route is a corner or a cross for Koulibaly or Savic, but a margin needs a second goal against this block. That's why I'm siding with Shabab Al-Ahli to stay within a goal.
Bodo/Glimt against Lille. Bodo press high and fast on their own turf, and their European games this season have been wide open, fifteen scored and fifteen conceded in seven. Lille are without Bentaleb, who sets their tempo, and an eighteen-year-old starts at right-back against Hauge's side. Ancelotti called this match almost decisive, so Lille cannot sit back the way they did at Monaco and Arsenal. Giroud gives them an out ball, and Viking showed four days earlier that runners can get behind Bodo's high line. I expect regains for Bodo near Lille's box and replies from Lille on the counter. That's why I'm siding with goals in Bodo.
