Two matches where the public absence lists point one way and the match facts point the other. In Madrid, Bayern's missing attackers have been read as fewer goals, but their chance creation without them has already been measured and it held up. Atlético's own midfield screen is the unit that's actually depleted. In Riyadh, Al Hilal are missing most of the players who create their chances, against an opponent built to keep the score tight.
Atlético against Bayern: Diaz and Musiala were already out against Dortmund, and Gnabry and Saibari went off after half an hour. Bayern still produced 23 shots and over four expected goals against a top-four Bundesliga side. Atlético have conceded once in four home games, but Oblak has outperformed the chances allowed, two opponents went down to ten men, and Coruña and Levante still took 15 and 20 shots.
The absences that matter for goals are in Atlético's midfield. Hjulmand is suspended and Cardoso is out, so the screen in front of the back line is thin. Atlético have scored in all of their last ten, and their runners suit Bayern's high line, which has conceded in eight of ten. Expect Bayern to have the ball, Atlético to break, and the game to open up late as the benches come on. I'm expecting goals at both ends in Madrid.
Al Hilal against Shabab Al-Ahli: Hilal's big domestic numbers came with Neves running the game and Summerville on the wing. Both are reported out, and Martinelli and Salem Al-Dawsari were already missing. Watkins, Koulibaly and Theo Hernández remain, so set pieces and overlaps are still a threat. But Hilal won by two or more in only one of their last five home games, and against decent sides the margin was a single goal.
Shabab have conceded once in three games in this competition. They held a lead at Ittihad while being outshot 23 to 8, with Azmoun breaking from a compact block, and they come in with four more days of rest. I'm siding with Shabab to keep this close.
