[26-27 NBA] Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Preview Tip-off: November 5, 01:00 UTC
The gap between the Memphis Grizzlies’ 6-1 record and the Indiana Pacers’ 2-6 record comes down to more than team strength. Their opponents and available players differ, too. The key question is whether Memphis can make its rebounding and deeper rotation count against an Indiana side expected to get three starters back.
1. Game overview and team form
Tuomas Iisalo’s Memphis Grizzlies have Cameron Boozer connecting the offense and Ty Jerome scoring, while giving bench players about 44% of the available minutes. Isaiah Stewart and Cam Spencer keep the offense going when the starters rest. Through seven games, Memphis has averaged a +6.0 point differential in the second quarter and +4.0 in the fourth. Still, four of its six wins came against teams such as the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings, both 1-6. Memphis has shot around 43% from three across six games, but some of that success came in a single game, so there is little reason to expect that rate to hold.
The Grizzlies lost 135-134 in overtime to the New Orleans Pelicans last time out. Jerome scored 40, but Memphis gave up 21 points off 16 turnovers (Basketball Network and Memphis Flyer, 11-03). Scotty Pippen Jr. is out, while Quinten Post is questionable with a right ankle sprain. Zach Edey is also important inside, but he picked up his third foul early in the second quarter last game and fouled out in overtime. If Edey gets into foul trouble again, Stewart and Boozer will have to take on more of the minutes in the paint.
Indiana’s five-game losing streak includes defeats to the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. The Pacers’ short rotation, perimeter defense and rebounding struggles all need to be considered. Against the Atlanta Hawks last time out, Indiana rested key players on the second night of a back-to-back and used only six players. The Hawks hit 15 threes in the first half, but Rick Carlisle’s team tightened its pressure defense after the break and fought back (Peachtree Hoops, 11-03). Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are off the injury report and expected to return today.
Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell remain out, while Ivica Zubac is questionable with a left ankle sprain (NBA official injury report, 11-04). Nembhard will handle the playmaking Haliburton usually provides. With Zubac unavailable, Jay Huff and Larry Nance Jr. have split the minutes at center. Indiana averages 41.4 rebounds per game, compared with 47.5 for its opponents. Jarace Walker and Huff both played more than 40 minutes in the last game, while the three returning starters sat out. The effect of fatigue will vary from player to player.
2. Matchup analysis
Rebounding is the clearest matchup. Edey, Cedric Coward and Boozer can secure the ball inside for Memphis, while Huff and Nance are set to face them with Zubac’s status uncertain. The Grizzlies have averaged 49.8 rebounds across six games. Indiana’s offensive efficiency is not poor, so we should not expect Memphis to create separation through shooting alone. The Grizzlies need extra chances from offensive rebounds to turn their edge into points. That avenue gets weaker if Edey cannot stay on the floor because of fouls.
From the perimeter, Memphis has made 16.5 threes per game across six contests, while Indiana allows opponents 14.6. If Jerome and Jaylen Wells find their range again, the Pacers will have to defend the paint and the three-point line. Memphis’s roughly 43% shooting from deep is not a given today, though. We will judge the Grizzlies’ attack by whether second-chance opportunities and bench scoring keep coming if their percentage drops.
Indiana’s response could come through pressure in the third quarter. As it did in the second half against Atlanta, the Pacers can pressure the ball handler and force turnovers, which could unsettle a Memphis team that gave away points through mistakes against New Orleans. Indiana has a +4.0 average point differential in the third quarter. Before then, it has to get through Memphis’s strong second-quarter bench minutes. Walker and Huff had heavy workloads last game and then got a day off, while the absences of Haliburton and McConnell remain even with three starters returning.
3. Prediction and conclusion
We expect Memphis to build an edge on the boards and during bench minutes. Indiana may close the gap with third-quarter pressure, but we think the Grizzlies will move back ahead in the fourth. Siakam and Nembhard give the Pacers more offensive options than they had last game. Memphis can add perimeter scoring to its second-chance points and bench production, so we expect both teams to score.
The market makes Memphis the favorite while allowing for Indiana’s returning starters to keep the margin down. We think those returns will help the starting lineup, but they do not solve the absences of Haliburton and McConnell or the uncertainty around Zubac. While players who logged heavy minutes last game take their turns on the bench, Stewart and Spencer can keep scoring. If Zubac plays and Memphis repeats the turnovers from its last game, though, Indiana’s third-quarter pressure could turn a close game into a Pacers win.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Moneyline: Win, Memphis’s rebounding edge and deeper rotation should hold up at home against a visiting team without Haliburton and with Zubac’s status uncertain. Handicap -6.5: Win, even with three starters back, Indiana’s second unit is still dealing with four absences, three questionable players and back-to-back fatigue. Memphis should create separation during its second-quarter bench stretch. Total 231.5: Over, Memphis’s path to opening up the score runs through second-chance points and bench scoring, while the Pacers’ offense should also produce with Siakam and Nembhard back.
