[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao preview and analysis Kick-off: November 7, 17:30 UTC
Osasuna beat Racing Santander 2-0 in Jagoba Arrasate’s first home match since returning as coach. Next up is Athletic Bilbao, who defend high up the pitch and look to exploit the space behind the back line quickly.
1. Match overview and team form
Jagoba Arrasate said Osasuna need to have more of the ball and play in the opposition half against Athletic Bilbao (Osasuna, Nov. 6). Away to Deportivo La Coruña, they scored first but spent long spells defending without the ball, then conceded twice from a second-half set piece and attacks down the flanks. They also conceded again on the counter after bringing on another forward away to Sevilla. To avoid the problems seen in Arrasate’s two away games since his return, Osasuna need to stop the opponent’s first forward pass as soon as they lose possession, even when they are attacking. In their only home match since his return, against Racing Santander, they had 20 shots and an expected goals figure of 3.38. That said, Racing were 16th and this is just one home match in the sample.
Osasuna left Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo out of their official squad list (Osasuna, Nov. 6). The starting lineup has already been taking shape without them. Jon Moncayola, Lucas Torró and Moi Gómez can handle possession and defensive transitions in midfield. The starting spots in goal, at defensive midfield and on the wings are still up for grabs (Comuniate, Nov. 5). Arrasate said he wants to maintain the intensity through substitutions, but his attacking options off the bench are limited.
Athletic Bilbao coach Edin Terzic emphasizes a high defensive line and counter-pressing (FutbolFantasy, Nov. 6). Against Real Sociedad, Iñaki Williams ran in behind to meet a long pass from Nico Williams and score the opener. That route has been dangerous against teams that push forward, but Athletic have managed only two draws and a loss against the three bottom-half sides they have faced. Gorka Guruzeta and Maroan Sannadi are unavailable, leaving Iñaki Williams as the only No. 9 option up front (FutbolFantasy, Infobae, Nov. 6). Nico Serrano and Álvaro Djaló are also doubts, which could leave fewer options when chasing a goal or trying to sustain attacks. Both teams rested many of their regulars in midweek cup matches and play again five and six days later, respectively, by local dates.
2. Matchup analysis
For Osasuna to keep possession in the opposition half, their defenders will also need to push forward. If they lose the ball in that shape, the forward pass from Nico Williams or Robert Navarro to Iñaki Williams is Athletic Bilbao’s clearest route to goal. The opening goal against Real Sociedad showed how it can work (DataCenter). Osasuna centre-back Alejandro Catena gave away a chance with a passing error against Deportivo La Coruña, and a foul near the penalty area led to the equalizer. Torró or Iker Muñoz need to block the first pass, while the defenders cover the space behind them, to keep Arrasate’s plan of pushing forward in place.
At the other end, Osasuna’s ability to play through Athletic Bilbao’s high press matters. If they can find Moi Gómez with short passes or win the second ball around a pass to Ante Budimir, they can move into the space behind the visitors’ high defensive line. Osasuna turned an opposition goalkeeper’s passing error into a Budimir goal against Deportivo La Coruña. Athletic can make those advances difficult if they win the ball back immediately with a counter-press. Fouls near the penalty area could also matter. Álex Berenguer had a goal and three assists against Getafe, including a free-kick goal, but his starting status is uncertain (Comuniate, Nov. 5). Aitor Paredes, who scored from a corner, is unavailable (BilbaoEgia, Nov. 6).
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Osasuna, with a win urgently needed, to push forward at home and leave space behind for Athletic Bilbao to attack through Iñaki Williams’ runs. We predict a one-goal away win. Osasuna can also score through attacks that beat the visitors’ high press and from set pieces, so we expect a close, high-scoring game.
That aligns with the market’s preference for Athletic Bilbao. Still, there is little reason to carry the goal difference from their recent two straight wins into this match. Terzic has confirmed that Guruzeta and Sannadi are unavailable, and there is no first-team No. 9 to replace Iñaki Williams (FutbolFantasy, Infobae, Nov. 6). Arrasate has said Osasuna need to play in the opposition half and win (Osasuna, Nov. 6), so Athletic could find the space behind the defence that they have exploited well. But if Osasuna press early, score first and limit the space left behind, Athletic will have to break down the compact defences they have struggled against among the lower-ranked teams.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Away win. Osasuna are under pressure to win and will push forward, leaving space behind for Iñaki Williams’ runs and Nico Williams’ forward passes to exploit. Handicap +1: Draw. With one goal added to Osasuna’s score, an Athletic Bilbao win by one goal means a draw, and with only one No. 9 available, they have few options off the bench to extend the lead to two. Over/Under 2.5: Over. Both teams press high, creating transition chances at both ends, and Osasuna have a route to a goal from set pieces and opposition errors.
