[2026-27 Eredivisie] Twente vs AFC Ajax Preview and Analysis Kick-off: Nov. 8, 13:30 (UTC)
Twente's crosses from the left and Ajax's crosses from the left both target the far side of the box. Headers are the shared scoring route for both teams, but the number of attacks can change depending on where each side loses the ball in midfield.
1. Match Overview and Team Form
Twente are 4th with 23 points, and Ajax are 2nd with 24. Twente's run of four straight wins in all competitions includes two games where the opponent had a player sent off. That is why we can't use the 9-0 win over Excelsior Rotterdam as a baseline for their attack today. Still, Sondre Orjasaeter's delivery and Wout Weghorst's heading are routes that stand apart from the numerical advantage. Orjasaeter had five assists against Excelsior Rotterdam, and against AZ Alkmaar Younes Taha's ball from a counter-attack was finished directly.
At home against Pafos FC, Twente had 29 shots, but they conceded first and only turned it around after the opponent was sent off. Many shots do not automatically mean many goals. Coach John van den Brom said he prepared the team expecting Ajax to attack more aggressively than Pafos did (Twente Insight, Nov. 7). The expected line-up is a 4-2-3-1, with Orjasaeter, Taha and Weghorst leading the attack (Eurosport, Nov. 7). All four absentees are outside the expected starting XI. Thomas van den Belt, who played from the 81st minute in the midweek game, looks set to start in midfield today alongside Ramiz Zerrouki.
Ajax have won five straight in all competitions, but in their last two league games they let the opponent back into the game after taking the lead. Against AZ Alkmaar they were outshot 19 to 9, and Marc-André ter Stegen saved all five shots on target. In attack, Tolu Arokodare's heading stands out. Against AZ Alkmaar he finished a cross from the left, and against Midtjylland he headed in an Oscar Gloukh corner.
Ajax's midfield is not settled yet. Julian Brandt's availability will be decided on matchday, and Sofyan Amrabat is also doubtful (Soccer News, Nov. 7; Ajax Showtime, Nov. 6). If Brandt is out, Gloukh could add to the set pieces and the finishing, but against AZ Alkmaar few extra chances came after the substitution. Coach Michel put Anton Gaaei's chances of playing at 50%. If Gaaei is out, Rosa is expected to take that spot (Ajax Showtime, Nov. 6; Eurosport, Nov. 7). The last meeting between the two sides came before Michel took charge, so it is hard to use as evidence of the current tactics.
2. Matchup Analysis
The first battle is Twente's left side, where Orjasaeter delivers the ball. Depending on whether Gaaei plays, Rosa may cover Ajax's right side of defence. If Orjasaeter can get crosses in, Weghorst will contest aerial balls with Aaron Bouwman and Dies Janse. If Ajax keep the ball and push forward on that flank, Orjasaeter will also have to help defend, which cuts down Twente's supply. Ajax can also advance on the left through Owen Wijndal and Abdellah Ouazane and send the ball to Arokodare.
The second battle is Ajax's midfield against Twente's counter-attack. Ajax struggled to carry the ball forward in the second half against Sparta Rotterdam, and a bad pass from Brandt led to a one-on-one chance for the opponent. Late against AZ Alkmaar, Twente turned Taha's counter-attacking pass into the winner through Orjasaeter. Whether Amrabat plays or someone else takes the holding role will decide how well Ajax protect the ball in front of Zerrouki, van den Belt and Taha. If Ajax get through this zone, Wijndal and Ouazane will also see more crossing chances.
Both teams played midweek, but only Ajax travelled after a trip to Denmark. Twente's gap between games is about 65 hours, and Ajax's is about 68. Michel said several players had played a lot of minutes in a short span (Ajax Showtime, Nov. 4). That could make it harder for Ajax to carry the ball in the second half. Still, using Yves Bissouma, who did not play midweek, in midfield could ease that burden.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We expect Twente to take the lead at home through Orjasaeter's supply from the left and Weghorst's aerial play. Ajax will also score from an Arokodare header, but we don't think they will turn the game around. Even if Twente attack often, with ter Stegen's saves in mind we don't see a game where the margin and the total goals climb much.
The market rated Twente slightly higher of the two closely ranked teams, and our view points the same way. But Twente's 9-0 win has to be read together with the conditions the opponent's early red card created. The more important evidence today is the expected starts of Orjasaeter and Weghorst, and the chance that Ajax's right side of defence has to be replaced because of the doubt over Gaaei (Eurosport, Nov. 7; Ajax Showtime, Nov. 6). Twente's absentees are also all outside the expected starting XI (Twente Insight, Nov. 7).
If Brandt and Amrabat both start and Ajax hold the ball in midfield for long spells, the game could get tighter. Neither player's availability is confirmed yet (Soccer News, Nov. 7; Ajax Showtime, Nov. 6).
[Final Conclusion · By Market · Based on Betman Listings] Full-time result: Home win. With no absentees in the expected line-up and their main routes intact, the home side beats a visiting team carrying border-crossing travel and accumulated minutes, in the second half. Handicap -1: Draw. Arokodare's aerial route and ter Stegen's saves keep Twente's edge to a single goal. Under/Over 3.5: Under. Both teams' recent big scores came after an opponent was sent off, and today Twente's defence, which gives up few chances, and ter Stegen stand in the way.
