[26-27 UEL] GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs RSC Anderlecht Analysis & Preview Kick-off: October 15 at 19:00 UTC
GNK Dinamo Zagreb host RSC Anderlecht at Maksimir Stadium on October 15 at 19:00 UTC in round 2 of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase. Dinamo Zagreb picked up a point in their opener and look for their first win, while Anderlecht lost to Lyon and target their first points. Who secures possession in midfield early on and how the back lines handle aerial balls into the box in the second half will decide this match.
1. Match Overview and Current Form
Dinamo Zagreb drew 0-0 against Hapoel Be'er Sheva in their European opener before losing 1-2 away to Hajduk Split in the league on October 10. Dion Beljo put them ahead in the derby with a 21st-minute header, but Dinamo conceded an own goal from a free-kick cross in the 24th minute and allowed the winner off a deflected shot in the 59th minute. Manager Mario Kovacevic pointed to early turnovers and poor positioning on set-piece defense, also admitting his substitutions came late. Heading into their first Europa League home match, the squad must improve how they manage leads in addition to getting a result.
Anderlecht lost 1-2 to Lyon in their first match, conceding twice inside the first 22 minutes. Manager Vitor Bruno admitted his side failed to carry out their planned pressing (Sporza, September 17). Anderlecht responded in the league with a 2-1 comeback win away at Cercle Brugge. Marco Kana gave away an early goal with a misplaced pass in the 11th minute, and Colin Coosemans had to make six saves before two late headers in the 86th minute and stoppage time sealed the win. That match proved Anderlecht can score when trailing, but their early midfield control looked shaky.
Season Record in Official Competitions Record: Dinamo Zagreb 4W-4D-2L (10 matches) / Anderlecht 10W-2D-3L (15 matches) Goals For/Against: Dinamo Zagreb 21 scored, 13 conceded / Anderlecht 24 scored, 12 conceded Last Match: Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 loss away at Hajduk Split / Anderlecht 2-1 win away at Cercle Brugge
Data shows Dinamo Zagreb's scoring has come in bunches against weaker opposition. A 5-0 win over Kauno Zalgiris and a 4-0 win over Vukovar 1991 account for 9 of their 21 goals. Across five European fixtures against Thun, Viking, and Hapoel Be'er Sheva, they scored six goals without winning a single match. They are unbeaten at Maksimir across four official matches this season (2W-2D), but both European games against Thun and Viking ended in 2-2 draws. That home record alone does not justify backing them to dominate here.
Anderlecht's away form also requires context. Sportsgambler noted a 2W-2D-6L record in Anderlecht's last 10 league away games as of October 10, but that sample includes many matches from last season. Under Bruno this season, Anderlecht are 4W-1D-2L in seven away games across all competitions. In European qualifiers, they stayed unbeaten on the road against Hammarby, PAOK, and Kairat Almaty. Both away defeats this season were shutouts. Anderlecht will put up resistance on the road, though mounting a comeback after conceding first is a tougher task.
Midfield selections move in opposite directions for both sides. Dinamo Zagreb captain Josip Misic returns to the starting lineup after serving a domestic suspension against Hajduk Split. Anderlecht cannot call upon Ilias Koutsoupias, who is ineligible for European competition. Thelo Aasgaard started in his place against Lyon. Beljo is expected to start up front for Dinamo. His absence through illness against Hapoel Be'er Sheva hurt Dinamo's attacking link-up play, so having Misic and Beljo together gives Dinamo a stronger attacking setup than in their previous European tie.
Uncertainty remains in the defensive lines. Dinamo right-back Raul Torrente or regular options are reshuffled because Paul Tabinas is not registered for Europe, leaving Moris Valincic or Niko Galesic to step in. Starting center-back Scott McKenna missed training with a virus and is doubtful to start (tportal.hr, October 14). Anderlecht are without Giulian Biancone, but Andrew Omobamidele is available after starting against Lyon (Anderlecht-Online, October 15).
Circumstances leading into matchday also diverge from normal routines. Technical issues delayed Anderlecht's flight by two hours, forcing them to cancel their scheduled training session at Maksimir. Bruno stated this cannot serve as an excuse. UEFA sanctions also closed half of Maksimir's lower north stand, with tickets still available across other sections the day before the match (tportal.hr, October 14). Both sides played their last matches on October 10 and face their next fixtures on October 18. Match preparation and stadium atmosphere differ far more than rest days.
Head-to-head in Europe, Dinamo hold 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against Anderlecht. In two previous meetings in Zagreb, Anderlecht recorded a win and a draw. Those games took place in the 2009-10 and 2018-19 seasons under different managers and squads. Current form against comparable opposition matters far more than historical meetings.
2. Matchup Analysis
The central battle from the opening whistle pits Dinamo Zagreb's midfield featuring Misic against an Anderlecht midfield without Koutsoupias. Kovacevic likes his team to win the ball high up the pitch and advance quickly. Against Hapoel Be'er Sheva, Dinamo pressed high in the opening 10 minutes and right after the second-half restart. With Misic sitting behind the pressing line to intercept forward passes and recycle possession, Dinamo can feed Beljo early. Kana's turnover in the 11th minute against Cercle Brugge that led to a goal gives Anderlecht reason to be cautious.
That said, Anderlecht's two early concessions against Lyon did not stem purely from a failure to beat a press. Bruno stressed that his side failed to execute their own planned pressing. Dinamo Zagreb's high press did not last long against Hapoel Be'er Sheva either. Once the opposition settled on the ball around the 15-minute mark, Dinamo spent long stretches defending. If Anderlecht secure their first passes and hold possession in midfield, Dinamo's early attacking waves will dwindle. Holding possession does not automatically yield clear chances, as Anderlecht held 65% possession against Cercle Brugge yet managed an expected goals figure of just 0.06 in the first half.
Out wide, Dinamo Zagreb's left flank attacks will run directly into Anderlecht right-back Ali Maamar. Beljo's goal against Hajduk Split came from a left-wing cross. Maamar set up Anderlecht's goal against Lyon after winning the ball high up the pitch and delivering a cross. Maamar's forward runs bolster Anderlecht's attack on the right, but Dinamo can exploit the space behind him if they win the ball before he recovers. Reaching crossing positions first on that flank will be a decisive battle.
On the other flank, Dinamo must reshuffle their right-back spot. Whether Valincic or Galesic steps in for Tabinas depends on McKenna's fitness. If McKenna cannot start and Galesic shifts into central defense, Valincic will take the right-back role. That changes the defensive pairing charged with containing Anderlecht's left side and dealing with aerial balls in the box compared to the Hajduk Split match. McKenna was involved in both goals conceded in that derby, but he has logged the most minutes of any center-back for Dinamo this season. His presence or absence reshapes their defensive stability.
Anderlecht possess the tools to test this makeshift defense late in the game. Mihajlo Cvetković headed home Maamar's cross against Lyon, while Taoufik Bentayeb and substitute Adriano Bertaccini each scored headers late against Cercle Brugge. Bertaccini came on for left-back Ludwig Augustinsson rather than Bentayeb, as Bruno added extra forwards while chasing the game. Dinamo Zagreb conceded from a set-piece cross in the derby, with Kovacevic acknowledging poor positioning. Anderlecht's late crosses and set pieces will pose a stern test for Dinamo's back line.
Committing extra attackers carries risk for Anderlecht. Removing a fullback to load the penalty box leaves fewer defenders behind to stop counterattacks. That gives Dinamo Zagreb openings to find Beljo and score on the break. An early Dinamo goal will not necessarily lead to one-way traffic in the second half. Which positions Bruno chooses to sacrifice for extra attackers will influence the scoring chances on both ends.
Game state after the opening goal will dictate the tactical setup. Anderlecht won all five games where they led at halftime across their last 10 official matches, keeping a clean sheet in each. In their away trip to PAOK, an early goal allowed them to sit back and secure a 1-0 win. They lost three of the four games where they trailed at halftime. If Dinamo score first, the visitors will likely commit more bodies forward. If Anderlecht lead, Dinamo must break down a set defense. Dinamo previously fought back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 at home against Thun, but they have not beaten a European opponent of comparable caliber this season.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We project a 2-2 draw between Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht. We favor a script where Dinamo take an early lead, Anderlecht pull level in the second half, and both sides exchange another goal before full time. The return of Misic alongside Beljo gives the hosts the edge in winning midfield duels early and finding the net first. Tabinas's absence and McKenna's uncertain health will weaken Dinamo's defensive structure against crosses late on. Kovacevic admitted his substitutions were delayed in the derby, while Bruno has repeatedly brought on extra strikers to produce headed goals when trailing.
The market favors Dinamo Zagreb slightly on the back of their domestic record, home form, and Beljo's scoring touch. We agree Dinamo have a good chance to strike first. We differ on their ability to protect a lead. Dinamo conceded twice in 2-2 draws at Maksimir against both Thun and Viking this season, and their defense faces changes on the flank. Unbeaten home form alone will not keep Anderlecht's late crosses and set pieces out of the net.
This outlook depends heavily on Dinamo's early pressing yielding an opening goal. If the first 20 minutes remain scoreless and Anderlecht establish steady possession in midfield, Dinamo will generate fewer attacks, pointing toward a lower-scoring affair.
