This match turns on what happens after the hour. Under Amorim, Milan build slowly and win games in the second half, mostly through runners arriving late and players coming off the bench. Atalanta under Sarri hold the ball and play a high line, but they come to San Siro without three centre-backs and without three of their usual sources of chances. The question is whether a patched Atalanta back line can survive Milan's late wave while their thinned attack tries to create anything at the other end.
Milan's goals this season tell the story. Against Torino they scored twice between 64 and 66 minutes, against Venezia at 69 and 89, at Juventus through Cisse off the bench, and at Lazio twice through Moreira after he came on. Their first halves against organised sides are slow, but the damage comes later. At home under Amorim they have also given very little away, with opponents creating only small chances in most of those games.
Atalanta concede volume under Sarri. They have conceded in five of six league games and allowed real chances in every one, including 39 shots at Roma. Away to big clubs they created very little at Roma and at Juventus, and those games still had Raspadori, Elmas and Kessie. All three are missing here: Raspadori was injured early against Pafos, Kessie has a calf problem and Elmas is suspended after his red card against Venezia.
The key matchup is Cisse and Ramos running behind a high line held by Kristensen and Kolasinac. With Hien, Kossounou and Scalvini all out, that pairing has hardly played together. When Scalvini went off against Venezia, Atalanta's defence started leaking chances straight away. Milan's wing-backs, especially Moreira, who has scored three times from wide arrivals, will also test full-backs who are patched themselves.
At the other end, Krstovic is in form and De Ketelaere can find space against a Milan back three without Gabbia, so Atalanta have one live route. Without the midfielders who usually arrive in the box, though, that route has little support.
Expect a tight first half with Atalanta keeping the ball. The turning point should be the hour mark, when Amorim's changes come on against tiring stand-in defenders who played on Thursday. If Milan score first, Atalanta have to open up, and their high line leaves even more room for Milan's runners. Both teams played in Europe in midweek, so the schedule cuts both ways. That's why I'm siding with Milan to win this clearly at home.
