Wales look like a better side at home than the first meeting suggests. Denmark won that one 2-0, but both goals came from free kicks, and each team had only three shots on target. Denmark have also been leaking goals, and their away form has been poor. I think Wales in Cardiff are more likely to take something out of this than the market allows.
The first meeting is the obvious argument for Denmark. They had about 62 percent of the ball and 19 shots to Wales's 10, and Wales admitted afterwards they did not defend set pieces well enough. That is a real point, and it is why I am not treating this as a comfortable home game.
But look at what has happened since. Wales beat Norway 2-1 at home, coming from behind, with Sorba Thomas supplying crosses and Daniel James scoring the equaliser. Norway then had a man sent off right after the break and Neco Williams scored the winner from a free kick. In their last ten games Wales have scored 14 and conceded 9 in six at home, with two wins and three draws.
Denmark, meanwhile, lost 4-2 at home to Portugal, in a game where the chances went heavily against them. Their expected goals were roughly 0.7 against Portugal's 2.7. They have conceded seven in three group games, and in the four away matches among their last ten they have not won once.
Squad news also leans a little toward Wales. Denmark's list has Eriksen, Jensen, Gronbaek and Dorgu flagged as injured, which thins the midfield that creates their chances. Wales have flags of their own, with Rodon, Darlow and Broadhead among them. Lineups are not out yet, so the fitness of all of these players is unconfirmed.
