Two K League matches on the last regular round, each shaped by what the away side has to protect next. Daejeon's winning formula is built at home and they host Vissel Kobe in Asia three days later, against a Gimcheon side that rarely loses at home. Pohang arrive at Ulsan with an attack that has stopped producing and a trip to Japan ahead, while Ulsan have had a full week off.
Daejeon win through volume and a second-half wave from the bench. Diogo and Seo Jin-su turned half-time deficits into wins against Jeonbuk and Gwangju. But that machine has worked at home. Away they drop into a mid-block, and their recent away league games read draw, draw, and summer losses at Gimcheon, Seoul and Jeju.
Gimcheon at home are a draw side: one win, ten draws and four losses in fifteen. Their short-passing midfield beat Daejeon's at this ground in July. This time Daejeon are without Bobsin, their ball-winner in the middle, so Gimcheon should keep the ball and the game should stay tight for a long time. With a Final A place nearly secure and Kobe coming, Hwang has reason to manage minutes, which thins out the late wave. That's why I'm siding with Gimcheon not to lose.
Ulsan against Pohang is about one attack that works and one that doesn't. Pohang have failed to score in three straight games with their first-choice front line, including a 0-0 at home to Anyang in which they were outshot twenty to eight. Ulsan's Lee Dong-gyeong has a goal or assist in five straight games, and Yago has sixteen goals.
Ulsan's home wins follow one pattern: a quiet first half, then the break-through after the hour, as against Incheon, Seoul and Bucheon. That is exactly where a week's rest against Pohang's tired, travelling squad counts. Pohang's route is an early transition or set piece, but it hasn't come for three games. I'm backing Ulsan to win.
