Two different games, two games that look like they will be decided late. In Sydney the home side meets a visitor that keeps the ball but rarely turns it into clear chances. In Daegu a tied Korean Series meets two contact pitchers, so the real contest should be the bullpens.
Sydney FC are fifth and play at home. Their goals lately have come after the break: two between the 64th and 73rd minute in the last home game. Central Coast hold more possession, but they scored once in their last two away games and nothing at Wellington, and they have lost first-choice goalkeeper Sainsbury. Sydney's own absences (a keeper, a defender and Walatee) have been out for three games already, so they are inside the recent form and not new. That's why I'm siding with Sydney to win at home: they see less of the ball, counter, and have a late-phase edge against a low-threat side.
In Game 3 of the Korean Series, Samsung host with ground-ball specialist Jurado, and KT send So Hyeong-jun, who has been strong in the postseason and against Samsung. The starters look close. The difference is behind them: Samsung have no clear closer, and their setup men Kim Tae-hoon and Bae Chan-seung pitched in both earlier games. KT's closer Park Young-hyun had the off day to recover. Both earlier games were tight and went to the bullpens.
If the starters trade zeros through the middle innings, the last three innings favour the rested side. That's why I'm siding with KT Wiz to win away.
