This looks like a rested, better-finishing side against a low-scoring home team that played in Europe a few days ago. Sunderland create shots but turn few into goals, while Chelsea's back line and goalkeeper position are patched up. The gap in energy and finishing is small but real.
Sunderland are 20th with five points and score about one goal a game. They have taken around fifteen shots per game, but five on target does not become goals. They lost 0-2 at home to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday and have missing defenders, with Ballard out for the whole recent run.
Chelsea are fourth and average 2.3 goals over their last ten. They had over eight days of rest since beating Manchester United 2-0 while already missing their first-choice goalkeeper and several others, so that absence list has been tested. Their away scoring is thin, and the doubtful flags on the defence are unverified.
I expect Sunderland to start with energy and shoot, then fade after about an hour when Chelsea's fresher forwards find space. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea to win in normal time.
