Sparta's deep shape has still produced dangerous attacks, while Ajax can create from pressure and a second route into the box. Their responses after the first goal can keep both attacks involved. Toulouse and Troyes should contest the wide areas, where territorial pressure and shot quality may tell different stories. Toulouse have the clearer route to repeated clean chances.
Sparta created strongly against Go Ahead Eagles and Willem II without Mito, finding Zonneveld and Martes even from limited possession. Ajax have turned high regains into chances and used Arokodare as another aerial option. Sparta have also allowed goals while attacking, and Ajax's fullbacks leave an outlet for the home side. That's why I'm siding with goals from both teams throughout the match.
Troyes can deliver through Mille to Ripart and Nkada, but its recent corner and shot volume has produced relatively few clean attempts. Dønnum, Cásseres, Tengstedt and Russell-Rowe give Toulouse clearer box access and a way to attack again if Troyes chase. Monfray and Diaz already covered the Troyes absences against Lens, while Gozzi is available, so the defensive group is familiar. That's why I'm siding with Toulouse to finish ahead.
