South East Melbourne and Melbourne United bring very different ways of creating a shot. The Phoenix push the ball, pressure handlers and chase their misses, while United work through Cole Anthony's creation and Finn Oduro inside. Their first derby showed that extra possessions matter only when the Phoenix finish them. This rematch turns on whether those extra looks become points and whether United can keep its half-court control late.
South East Melbourne had 13 more shots and 20 offensive rebounds in that first meeting but made just four of 41 threes. Its win over Illawarra showed Sobey and Daniels can both score and create, with Mays and Schwartz giving them other outlets. Anthony can break the first line of pressure, and Oduro's inside catches still demand a firm response from Hunter, Morin and Aliir.
Goulding, who hit five threes in the earlier derby, is listed out on the league's expected depth chart. Wilson, Machar, Travers and Ingles can share his scoring and passing work, but the spacing task shifts to them. Foster and Goodrick are also listed out for the Phoenix, leaving Krebs, Morin and Aliir to cover those minutes.
The opening stretch can be uneven as Phoenix pressure meets United's inside-out attack. South East Melbourne's stronger second-quarter scoring and longer recovery give it a route to build chances, while United showed at Adelaide that Anthony and Oduro can seize an early lead. Later, the Phoenix can keep finding attempts through pressure and the offensive glass; United's recent fourth-quarter fades make that sustained push especially relevant.
That's why I'm siding with South East Melbourne to win. Its ability to create extra shots was already visible in the first derby, and Sobey and Daniels now give those possessions more ways to become points against a United side missing Goulding's off-ball threat.
