Shanghai Port against Cong An Ha Noi should be the open kind of game Port enjoy, not the home siege where they stall. The visitors contest the ball rather than park in front of their box, and the way they have conceded in this competition lines up with how Port score. Ratchaburi against Kashiwa Reysol looks set for goals at both ends: a home side that has to chase meets a tired visiting side whose runners thrive in space.
Port hold the ball, around six in ten passes on average. Their problem at home comes against deep blocks, like the draw with Daejeon where they barely got into the box. CAHN are not that team: they had close to half the ball at Gamba and against Kashima. In both of those games they conceded after the hour, from crosses into the box and turnovers in their own half. Those are Port's routes, with wide service from Melendo and Vital and attacking depth on the bench.
CAHN's attack has produced one goal in two group games, much of it from long range, and their creator Dinh Bac is reported to have stayed in Vietnam. Port come in rested with a free week to follow, while CAHN carry fatigue. That's why I'm siding with Port to win.
In Ratchaburi, the hosts have no points and must attack. The last time they did that at home in this competition, the game ended 4-6. Their back line is unsettled, with new centre-back Insua doubtful and Vieira gone. Kashiwa scored five in a half against Port even with six changes, but their box defending leaks: they faced 25 shots at Kashima. A rotated, tired Kashiwa side tends to lose control rather than slow the game down. That's why I'm backing a high-scoring match in Ratchaburi.
