Seoul against Suwon KT will be decided at the rim and on the glass, and the player at the centre of it carries a shoulder problem into the game. In Gunma against Nagoya, both teams' scoring routes run into a defence that slows them but does not shut them off. Both games tilt away from what the season averages say.
Seoul are top of the table because their offence runs through Kerem Kanter in the paint. With a sound shoulder he scored 30 or more against Sono, Mobis and KCC. At DB on Nov 7, carrying the knock, he went 2 for 8 inside, fouled out, and scored in single digits for the first time in his KBL career after playing 20 minutes. Seoul lost the boards 34-40 and gave up a lead. Their coach called his condition not normal.
That is the exact matchup KT are built for. They are the league's best rebounding team, and Trey Porter has been strong at centre over the last three games. Paris Bass creates and gets to the line. Losing Oczon to appendicitis removes a guard creator and some three-point volume, but KT already won without him on Nov 7 through Bass's free throws and Porter inside. KT don't need their recent hot shooting to continue. They need their glass and their usual ball security. Seoul's threes are the part the shoulder doesn't touch, and their wins tend to be narrow. I expect a close game decided in the middle quarters, so I'm siding with Suwon KT.
In Ota, Nagoya arrive unbeaten, but nine of their last ten opponents were at .500 or worse. Their engine is inside scoring and free throws: 37 attempts at Toyama two days earlier, with Eatherton, Luther and Henry all drawing contact. Gunma have a decent interior defence and protect the ball, so Nagoya's turnover-fuelled transition shrinks here, but the free-throw route needs no shooting luck. Gunma's own offence is about thirty threes a game plus Blackshear's playmaking. They have already played without Tsuji and still scored 102 and 90.
The season numbers include blowouts of the league's weakest teams and two cold Gunma road nights in early October. When either side met a top-half opponent, the games mostly landed in the high 160s to the 180s. Rebased for the level of opposition in both directions, I still see both teams around the 80s. That's why I'm on the high-scoring side in this one.
