Both of these games turn on one tired or damaged unit rather than on the table. In Seoul, Samsung's whole attack is built around Kerem Kanter in the post, and that engine came out of the last game with a shoulder his own coach called not normal. In Mito, Ryukyu arrive with a short guard rotation straight off a double-overtime night, facing a team that shoots threes in volume at exactly the spot Ryukyu have been leaking.
Samsung at their best look like the season opener: Kanter scored 30 with 14 free-throw attempts and 13 rebounds, Trey Porter picked up four fouls, and the shooters got clean looks. In the loss at Wonju it looked very different. Kanter played about 20 minutes for 8 points, got into foul trouble and fouled out, Samsung reached the line only 12 times, and they lost the fourth quarter 9-25 on their third game in five days.
KT are missing guards Oczon and Kim Sun-hyung and big man Ha Yun-gi, but we have already seen what that looks like. Against KoGas, Porter had 22 points and 12 rebounds in 26 minutes and Paris Bass drew 13 free throws. KT rebound better than anyone in the league. If Kanter is limited, McCullough has to carry the frontcourt again after 35 minutes at Wonju, and the glass and the foul line swing toward KT. Samsung keep the edge in three-point volume. When I add it all up it comes out close to level, which is why I'm siding with KT to keep this within a basket or win it.
In the other game, Ibaraki take 28-40 threes a night and play Vic Law, Finn Delany and Tim Soares alongside Ray Parks. Ryukyu have allowed 44, 40 and 31 three-point attempts in recent games. They missed David Nwaba last time out, and Sadohara and Oura played 43 and 39.5 minutes in a nine-man rotation. Jack Cooley on the offensive glass and Ryukyu's trips to the line keep them in it, but Ryukyu have also given up their biggest quarters late. I'm backing Ibaraki at home to win.
