Two Korean home games. In both, the main question is what the visitors can actually do against the home side's strongest end. In Seoul, the best steal-and-transition team in the KBL meets a KoGas side whose handlers give the ball away and whose shooters have gone cold. In Incheon, Hungkuk have the reliable closer, while JKJ have the serving runs that already broke this exact reception once.
Seoul SK v KoGas. SK make their margin from turnovers. They lead the league in steals, fast-break points and points off turnovers, and they also commit the fewest turnovers themselves. KoGas give the ball away more than ten times a game. Their first option, Aluma, had five turnovers in 27 minutes in his last game, was benched for condition for most of the middle quarters and was called out by his coach afterwards. So the turnover battle favours SK at both ends, which is worth a handful of extra possessions, mostly in the second and third quarters when both teams use two imports.
KoGas's real answer is the three, because SK's pressure leaves the arc open and opponents have shot close to forty percent against them. But the KoGas players actually on the court have shot only about a quarter of their threes over their last five boxed games, Aluma included. SK are without Eddie Daniel, and they won comfortably at Samsung in their first game without him, with Hicks and Oh Jae-hyun carrying the minutes. SK usually give some ground back in the fourth quarter, so I expect a lead built by the third quarter to shrink late but hold. That's why I'm siding with SK to win by a margin, with room left for that late fade.
Hungkuk v JKJ. Kindelan is Hungkuk's engine. She scored 34 against JKJ in the cup and closed the deuce set. JKJ have not played a competitive match in about three weeks and open their league season under a new coach, so Hungkuk are the right favourite. But in that cup meeting JKJ won the first set and built a lead in the fourth through serving runs from Park Hye-min, Lee Seon-woo and Shin Eun-ji. That was against this same Hungkuk reception, where Pyo Seung-ju has just had a shaky receiving night.
Bukiric is the variable. She has not played since her calf injury and her condition is described as not perfect. Without her, JKJ are the cup version that still took a set from Hungkuk. With her, they add the late-set finisher they lacked in both cup defeats. Hungkuk's recent straight-set wins came only against the league outsider. The likely shape is contested sets, with JKJ breaking through at least once. That's why I'm on this match going beyond three sets.
