Two Serie A matches decided less by who attacks well than by who can't defend. Sassuolo and Fiorentina are both using stand-in centre-back pairs that have leaked goals in recent weeks. Atalanta's back four has been rebuilt by injuries, and it was already giving up plenty of shots before that. In both games the weaker halves are the defences, and they are the ones on the pitch.
Sassuolo against Fiorentina first. Sassuolo under Aquilani play without much of the ball and score through Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté. They have conceded 2, 6, 2 and 4 in their last four games, all with Caleta-Car and Odenthal standing in at centre-back. Fiorentina under Vanoli dominate the shot count and attack with wide deliveries from Jiménez and João Mário. Pongracic and Ranieri are out, so Dragusin and Viery are a new pair, and they conceded 2, 2, 3 and 2 in their last four.
The matchups line up with those weaknesses. Fiorentina's crosses and wide combinations are the same route Lazio and Como used to score at Sassuolo. Sassuolo's wingers break into the space Fiorentina's full-backs leave, and Fiorentina have given away counters from turnovers in their build-up. Sassuolo's midfield is also thin, with Thorstvedt suspended and Kone, Boloca and Volpato missing, so the stand-in centre-backs get less cover.
The first half may be cagey, but the first goal should open it up whichever side scores it. When Sassuolo chase, their back line gets exposed. When Fiorentina chase, their full-backs go high and leave room for Berardi. That's why I'm siding with goals in this match.
Atalanta against Parma comes down to whether Parma can score. Their season numbers say no: five goals in nine, one in four games under Gilardino. But those numbers came against Inter, Lazio, Como and Udinese. In the one game against a leaky defence, at home to Torino, they took 25 shots with 8 on target.
Atalanta's defence is leaky. Sassuolo, Venezia and Frosinone took 22, 19 and 24 shots at Bergamo, and Fiorentina took 26. Atalanta have conceded in five of their last six home games. Now Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac and Bellanova are out, Kristensen is doubtful, Scalvini is short of fitness and Kessie isn't there to protect the line. The expected back four is Zappacosta, Scalvini, Obric and Bernasconi, with two wing-backs playing at full-back.
Atalanta should still score: De Ketelaere, Zalewski and Krstovic are fit, and Parma have conceded 17 in ten. Their recent leads haven't held, going 4-4 after leading at half-time and 2-2 at Fiorentina. Parma's two forwards, their wing-backs and set pieces all have a defence to attack. That's why I'm siding with both teams finding the net in this one.
