Two matches, one idea: the headline records in both games hide something that changes how they will play out. Romania's heavy defeat was played with ten men for most of it, and France arrive with a thinned-out back line and a run of tight results.
Romania v Sweden. Romania have lost all three Nations League games, and the 0-6 at Poland sounds terrible, but their centre-back was sent off in the 22nd minute and the game was long gone from there. At home they have scored in each of their last four matches, and the games they failed to score in over the last ten were all away. Sweden, for their part, have kept a clean sheet only once in their last twenty games, and they have conceded 13 goals in five recent away matches. The first meeting this autumn finished 2-1 with a goal for each side.
France v Belgium. The three France games under the new coach finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1, each with France creating only around 1.2 xG. Now their defence is short: Upamecano is suspended after his red card against Italy, and Konate and Mbappe have both dropped out of the camp injured. Belgium take a lot of shots, with 17 to 23 in several recent games and about 1.7 xG on average. In the last meeting Belgium actually had the better chances and still lost 0-1, so a margin of more than one goal for France is not what these numbers point to.
I joined the two because each one rests on a concrete, checkable reason rather than on the names and standings that the market already knows.
