Two NBA games, and in both the schedule is the story. One side comes in rested after days off, the other is playing on consecutive nights with a thin rotation and a defence that has been leaking points.
In Phoenix, the Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back after a home loss in which they gave up 132. They have conceded between 113 and 132 in five straight games, and two more rotation players, Goodwin and Fleming, were newly listed out. Orlando has been without Banchero and Suggs for weeks, and its scoring has dropped to 94 and 97 in the last two home games. But those absences are already in its results, while Orlando arrives rested against a tired, porous defence. That's why I'm siding with the Orlando Magic on the road.
In San Francisco, the Warriors have three days of rest at home. Miami played on the road the previous night, its third game in a week, and has allowed 138 and 128 in recent games. Golden State's long-term absentees, Butler, Porzingis and Moody, have been out for weeks, and the team has still won its recent games without them, shooting close to 40 percent from three. The old Heat head-to-head record is mostly from different rosters. I'm siding with the Golden State Warriors at home.
Both reads come from rest and defence, not from reputation.
