Two NBA games where the schedule and the season margins point the same way, and where the market leans on the more visible side. In both, the team carrying the better underlying numbers is not the one getting the credit.
Phoenix against the Clippers is a loose, high-scoring matchup between two teams that leak points. The Suns have a season margin of about minus eight per game and concede around 119, with no centre, and they come in on the second night of a back-to-back after losing by 26. The Clippers sit at about minus four per game and have had two days of rest. Beal and Ingram were already out when the Clippers beat New Orleans by 16, so that absence is not new information. The Clippers' ball security is the soft spot, but the Suns' fatigue and their habit of fouling make me think this stays close. That's why I'm siding with the Clippers getting points.
Portland against Oklahoma City is a meeting of two teams with different ways of living. The Thunder win through steals, low turnovers and spacing, and have held a margin of about plus eight per game. Their four big-man absences have been in the sample for seven games, which they went 5-2. Portland's guard group is thin, with Morant, Sharpe and Krejci out, and they lost their last two games by 6 and 22. Portland's route runs through Avdija and Lillard at the line and a strong second quarter, but both teams shoot about the same from three, so there is no clear shooting edge for the home side. That's why I'm siding with the Thunder to win.
