Both of these games come down to a team's main way of scoring running into a specific stop. In Portland it is possessions: a home side that keeps giving the ball away meets a visitor that forces turnovers and protects its own. In Philadelphia it is the three-point line: Boston's volume shooting meets the one thing Philadelphia have done in every game this season, which is keep opponents' threes down. In both games, the ball security, the shooting and the absences behind those numbers come from the players available for this match.
Portland against Oklahoma City first. Without Morant, Portland's ball handling has been loose: 24 turnovers at the Lakers and 18 against San Antonio, with many of them unforced. Oklahoma City have given the ball away only 8 to 13 times in each of their last four games, and Portland don't steal much. That adds up to a few extra Thunder possessions, and Gilgeous-Alexander gets to the line against a defence that has allowed 26 or more free-throw attempts in eight of nine games.
Oklahoma City are still without Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams, but those absences were already in their last four boxes, and they won the glass in every one of them with Hartenstein and the rookie Mara. Portland's way back is three-point volume, and it needs that to land on the same night the Thunder go cold. Rest is equal for both sides. That's why I'm siding with Oklahoma City to win it.
Philadelphia against Boston. Boston's big season differential was built mostly against weaker teams, and away from home against strong opponents they have come up short in Detroit and Houston. Their attack lives on 40 to 50 three-point attempts a game, but Philadelphia have held all ten opponents to between 7 and 14 made threes. When Houston kept Boston to 12, Boston lost.
Embiid is not on the injury report. With no true backup centre behind him, the stretches when he sits are Boston's best chance, with Robinson and Queta on the glass. If Philadelphia keep that run to single digits, the late game suits them. Maxey, Brown and LeBron keep getting to the rim and the free-throw line, Philadelphia's fourth quarter has been their best, and Boston's has been their weakest. That's why I'm siding with Philadelphia to win at home.
