Two different games, each with its own shape. In Perth the structure is two leaky sides that give up more shots than they take, so chances should arrive at both ends. In Madrid the structure is a home side stripped of attackers and midfielders that has barely scored all season, against a visitor that is more intact.
Perth Glory host Adelaide United after nine days of rest, while Adelaide played a continental match three days ago and then flew across the country. Both sides concede around sixteen to eighteen shots a game and their chance numbers add up to roughly three goals between them. Adelaide have several players missing, which thins their back line and their centre of midfield, and Perth are also short in midfield. Adelaide will hold more of the ball and Perth will counter, so the first goal should open the game up rather than close it. That's why I'm on the goals side here.
Getafe against Sevilla is a different story. Getafe have scored only five league goals in ten games, their recent league chance numbers are very low, and they are missing attackers, a suspended midfielder and a centre-back. Sevilla have won their last two without two of their own regulars, and they should have more of the ball than usual. Getafe's route is one set piece or counter under a defensive coach, which is real, but it needs their weak attack to do it. That's why I'm siding with Sevilla not to lose, with the draw simply returning the stake.
