This rematch turns on how Georgia uses the ball against a compact Northern Ireland defense. Northern Ireland have been most dangerous when they can win it back, move it wide quickly, or make a dead ball count. Georgia’s recent possession has brought less danger close to goal than the ball share suggests. That pattern is what matters most at Windsor Park.
The first meeting stayed scoreless until a long throw and Trai Hume’s cross led to Shea Charles’s late goal. Northern Ireland also defended their box and Pierce Charles saved a penalty. Those details say more about how the teams matched up than the final score alone.
Against Ukraine, Northern Ireland scored from a corner and then from a quick move down the right that Isaac Price finished. Ukraine had more of the ball but managed 0.44 xG. Georgia had 58% possession against Hungary in its next game, yet finished with eight shots and 0.42 xG. Northern Ireland’s defensive shape and its routes forward fit that gap between possession and chances.
