Two matches where the shape of the teams matters more than the names. One is a home side whose back line is short of full-backs facing a visitor that wants the ball and is not afraid. The other is a home side that keeps creating good chances and losing for avoidable reasons, against a visitor whose midfield is thin.
Liverpool v Villarreal. Both teams leak and both attack in volume: Liverpool's last five home games produced 14 goals, Villarreal's last five away games produced 15, and each side's last ten sits at a little over three goals per game. Liverpool are without both natural right-backs, Bradley and Frimpong, and Szoboszlai, who went off at Brentford and has not been back, while Iraola has hinted that not everyone is fresh enough to start. Villarreal want the ball, their coach talks about playing without fear, and he knows Iraola well. Their creators work down exactly the side where Liverpool are patched up. Up front Liverpool are intact: Isak, Wirtz and Barcola had 20 shots inside the box at LASK. The forecast is rain at Anfield. I expect an open game with goals at both ends, and that is the direction I'm taking here: plenty of goals.
Napoli v Bodo/Glimt. Napoli have no points but the process is better than the table: their chance quality was ahead in each of the last four matches, with 29 shots at Venezia, most of them inside the box. The defeats came from a back-pass error, a long shot, a deflection, and a missed penalty against a keeper in form. Bodo press well and Allegri expects a low block and counters, so the early build-up is the risk. But Bodo have conceded two a game away from home, and they are missing Evjen, Riisnaes, Mikkelsen and Sjong in midfield and attack. Napoli's bench is the stronger one after the hour. I'm siding with Napoli to win at home.
