Nagasaki and Sendai bring different ways to create a second useful shot: half-court passing on one side, multiple guards and outside volume on the other. Their recent fourth quarters show that an early lead does not settle the final gap. Ibaraki and Ryukyu also have competing routes through the paint and the glass. In that matchup, the decisive possessions should come after the first drive is stopped.
Aguilar's passing at center frees Brantley and Randolph, while Baba adds another wing finish after playing meaningful minutes in Nagasaki's last game. Sendai's El Darwich and Culver can create clean looks for Layman and Boothe, but its recent road wins have often required late work rather than separation. Mitchell's absence was already absorbed into Aguilar's full role. Nagasaki's separate scoring outlets give it a way to keep answering through the closing stretch, so I'm siding with Nagasaki to stay close.
Ibaraki can put Law, Delany and Soares into successive finishing roles, then use its passing and free throws to turn those entries into points. Ryukyu has Cooley's offensive boards and Oura's creation, yet Sadohara, Oura and Cooley just carried heavy minutes in a double-overtime game. Nwaba missed that game; the Ibaraki trio all played its last game on normal loads. Ibaraki's second-shot supply and fresh closing options give it the better route to the last basket. That's why I'm siding with Ibaraki Robots to win.
