Two B.League games where the record table tells less than the venue does. Nagoya's unbeaten run is built on forcing turnovers and spreading the scoring, and Gunma's best counter, protecting the ball, has already been beaten once in that cell. In Nagasaki, Sendai arrive with a hot run that was mostly built at home, against a host whose home level is much better than their overall record. Both games come down to possessions and where the numbers were made.
Nagoya force turnovers in every game. Even Tokyo, the side that protected the ball best against them, coughed it up 10 times and still lost by 11 after a 33-17 fourth quarter. They have five or six real scorers, so they keep pulling away after half-time, and they keep opponents off the line, usually around 15 free throws. Gunma win by holding onto the ball and getting to the line, about 26 attempts at home through Blackshear and Johnson. That route runs straight into a defence that rarely fouls.
The common opponents point the same way. At Brex, Nagoya won by 29 and Gunma lost by 3. Nagoya won at Ibaraki by 12, while Gunma beat Ibaraki at home by only 1 and 9. Gunma's four-game run came mostly against Osaka and Chiba, and their one home game against a top side was a 14-point loss to Alvark. Nagoya's whole core played two days ago, and Gunma have been without Tsuji. I expect a close first half with the Gunma crowd behind them, then Nagoya's depth and pressure opening it in the third and fourth quarters. That's why I'm siding with Nagoya on the road.
In Nagasaki, Sendai's nine wins in ten look strong, but seven of those games were at home. On the road this season their margins were one, eleven, two, minus three and minus eleven, mostly close games. Nagasaki's six and nine includes a heavy load of road and EASL games, and at home in the league they are three and one with wins by 11 to 17, all without the import Mitchell, who has been missing from every recent box.
Sendai win through three-point volume from Culver, Layman, El Darwich and Boothe. Nagasaki have held most league opponents to around 30 percent from deep. Sendai force about 13 or 14 turnovers a game, which is steady pressure, not a press, against a Nagasaki side that leaks about 12. That is a one or two possession edge for Sendai, not a blowout. Sendai also start a long western road swing here after a trip down from Tohoku. I expect Nagasaki to compete early at home as they did at Hiroshima, and the game to be decided late within a couple of possessions. That's why I'm backing Nagasaki at home to stay with Sendai.
