This match puts the league's best two-point attack against its worst two-point defence, and Mobis arrive without either of their regular imports. Samsung live in the paint through Kerem Kanter and McCullough, while Mobis allow more two-point and paint attempts than anyone. KBL plays one import at a time, so every minute Mobis's newly signed stand-in sits, Samsung's bigs face domestic players only. The margin should be built in those stretches.
Samsung sit top of the table at 9-1, and their offence runs through Kanter, who averages 25.6 points and 11.1 rebounds on 62.9% two-point shooting. As a team they shoot 59.5% inside the arc, best in the league. Gutang and a group of domestic shooters space the floor around the post. Mobis are 10th at 3-7, and without imports their scoring comes from guards and wings like Lee Woo-suk, Seo Myung-jin and Park Moo-bin.
The absences are the story. Prim has been out with a knee ligament tear since late October, and Bazley ruptured his plantar fascia against KCC and missed the next game. Mobis brought in Spellman as a temporary import. His contract was only completed a day before he was registered, so he arrives with almost no practice time with this group. With Bazley on the floor, Mobis still lost this matchup 91-71 in October. With no import at all, they lost 94-67 to KoGas a week later.
The key matchup is Kanter and McCullough against Spellman and the domestic bigs Lee Seung-hyun and Kim Kyung-won. Mobis threw hard double-teams at KoGas without an import and still gave up 94. Samsung's weak spot is turnovers, which showed against SK's aggressive, steal-heavy defence, but Mobis aren't a forcing team. They managed only four to seven steals in their recent games, so any turnover trouble would have to come from Samsung's own mistakes. Mobis's real way to stay close is hot shooting from Lee Woo-suk and the wings.
I expect Samsung to open the gap in the first half, when the new import needs rest and the paint opens up, much like the October meeting. Mobis's domestic offence has struggled to keep pace with that kind of inside scoring. That's why I'm siding with Samsung to win on the road by a comfortable double-digit margin.
