Minnesota against Dallas looks closer on the court than the headlines suggest, because the Dallas absences people talk about have been missing all season. Phoenix against Charlotte goes the other way: Charlotte have lost three creators, and the shooting gap between the two sides is real across a run of games. One match is about a cushion holding, the other about efficiency pulling away.
Without Anthony Edwards, Minnesota have become a three-point volume team, with LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu creating and Gobert anchoring the rim. Their arc is their main weapon, but it meets the best perimeter defence in this pairing: Dallas have held opponents to about 30% from three over their last ten. Once you re-base Minnesota's shooting edge on this opponent, most of it shrinks away.
The free-throw line points the other way. Minnesota give up more free throws than they make and shoot around 70% there, while Flagg and Irving keep getting to the line. Dallas's rebounding edge was built entirely without Lively, so his absence changes nothing compared with their record. Irving and Flagg both played heavy minutes in the last game and the coach says everyone from that game is available.
I expect a close game going into the fourth quarter, where both teams have been strong, with Minnesota a few points better at home but not by much. That's why I'm siding with Dallas to stay close.
In Phoenix, the Suns win with shot quality. Over their last eight games they shot well above Charlotte from the field and from three, and they force turnovers from a Hornets side that already gives the ball away about 18 times a game. Now Charlotte are without Miller, Knueppel and Schroder, which removes their main scorer and one of their ball handlers.
Charlotte's real strengths are volume and the glass. They take a lot of threes and outrebound opponents, while Phoenix struggle on the boards without Mark Williams and foul a lot. Diabate's likely return helps that rebounding route. But Charlotte have shot only about 31% from three over eight games, and their road offence has been poor.
The gap should open after half-time, when Charlotte's scoring has dropped off and Phoenix's third quarter is their best. Phoenix also showed no sign of fatigue on the second night of their recent back-to-back. That's why I'm siding with Phoenix to win by a clear margin at home.
