In Melbourne, the side that keeps the ball is the away team. Western Sydney have had more of the ball than every league opponent so far, and City have conceded first in all three of their games. In Malaga, the bottom side at home meets a visitor that has collapsed on the road. Both games come down to one team's defending problem that shows up in every row.
Melbourne City v Western Sydney. The Wanderers have had 55, 62 and 62 percent of the ball, two of those games away, and their defence has allowed only one, four and two shots on target. At Macarthur they out-created the hosts by a wide margin and still drew 0-0, so their finishing away from home is the soft spot. City have done their damage after half-time: Marcondes came off the bench at the break in both the Sydney and Victory games and changed them. But they have one first-half goal in three league games, and Freke is out with a groin problem, so the backup keeper who started the last match is in goal again.
The key battle is Western Sydney's build-up through Scicluna, Thurgate and the runners between the lines against City's young midfield pair. Rossetto is cleared to return and Marcondes may start, which would help City, but neither has started yet. If the Wanderers keep control and score once, City have to chase. Even if it stays tight, this fixture has produced four draws in the last ten. That's why I'm siding with Western Sydney not to lose.
Malaga v Racing Santander. Malaga are bottom and create little. Their goals come from Nino finishing crosses from the left, and he has scored in four straight league games. Racing are a different team away from home: no points from five away games, four goals scored and eighteen conceded. At Rayo and Osasuna they allowed plenty of shots on target and created almost nothing themselves.
Zabiri, Vicente and Canales are all fit, so Racing's best route is a transition or a set piece, and Malaga gave up two dead-ball goals at Betis. Malaga's missing forwards also sat out the last few games, so the attack that has been scoring is the one that plays. Expect Malaga to push early and Racing to struggle to get out. That's why I'm with Malaga at home, with the draw covered.
