This match puts the league's best inside attack against one of its leakiest two-point defences, and LG's three-point volume against an SK side that concedes plenty from deep. The two teams' best channels each run into the other's weakest end. The difference is that one channel is built on volume and personnel, while the other depends on a shooting rate. The middle quarters, when both of SK's imports can share the floor, are where this game should be decided.
SK lead the league in two-pointers and paint makes. Warney runs the pick game as a hub and Hicks finishes inside. Over their last nine league games, SK won the second-and-third-quarter window seven times, and that held in three of four games since losing wing defender Daniel. LG concede almost 90 a game and have been carved up inside: KCC, DB and SK all shot above 60 percent on twos against them, and their own coach admitted the pick game beat them last time out.
The key matchup is Warney and Hicks against Marei in that middle window. LG's second import is a guard, Goodwin, so Marei carries the inside load with help from domestic forwards. In the first meeting LG led the opening quarter 32-13 from the arc and still lost the middle quarters 53-33.
The lineup news matters here. Tamayo, the forward who gave LG 21 minutes and hit three threes in that first meeting, is still out with an ankle injury. His minutes go to players with smaller lines, which leaves LG thinner in exactly the window SK use to build their lead. Daniel's absence on SK's side is real, but it is already inside their recent games, and the inside edge has held without him.
Expect LG to come out shooting at home and to keep it close early. SK's two bigs should then wear on Marei through the middle quarters, and LG need a top-of-range shooting night to stay level. SK do tend to give a little back late, but the margin should be built before that. That's why I'm siding with Seoul SK Knights to win this by more than a single basket.
