This is a clash of tempos: a Levanga side that wants to run and live at the free-throw line, against a NeoPhoenix team that has controlled the pace of every game it has played this season. Both teams have their own way of winning, so the question is whose rhythm sets the game. NeoPhoenix's defensive efficiency is the most reliable number on either side. Levanga's open-floor style has not yet been tested against a defence this organised at home.
Levanga average around 96 points and get 20 to 33 free throws a game through Bolden, Ramos, Harrar and Tominaga, but they also leak about 96. NeoPhoenix are the opposite. Every one of their ten games has finished somewhere between 152 and 182 total points, they concede about 81, and by my count they play roughly five possessions a game slower than Levanga.
The matchups to watch are Levanga's free-throw attack against NeoPhoenix's bigs, Harrellson and Van Tubbergen, and NeoPhoenix's high three-point volume through Davis and Tsuya against a Levanga perimeter that has allowed big nights from deep. Levanga's steals matter too, but NeoPhoenix have a real point guard in Sasaki, so that channel is moderate rather than decisive. When Levanga met organised defences on the road, they were held to 69 at Ibaraki and 85 at Kyoto.
There is no fresh lineup news to change the picture. Tominaga played full minutes at Kyoto after his leg knock, and NeoPhoenix's long-term wing absence is already built into all their recent games. NeoPhoenix also arrive after a heavy loss at Alvark that their coach and players called an effort failure, which points toward a tighter defensive response.
I expect a measured first half in the low 40s per side, with Levanga trying to speed things up in the second and fourth quarters. If NeoPhoenix keep their turnovers near their usual level and make Levanga shoot from outside, the game stays in the 170s. That's why I'm siding with the under: NeoPhoenix's tempo should hold.
