Two matches where the away side is the one creating the better chances, and in both a level result would simply return the stake rather than settle the question.
Lens against Paris FC: Lens are a high-volume side, but their ten-game numbers include two Champions League matches and they concede about 1.8 expected goals a game. Paris FC create about 1.9 and concede about 1.0. Lens have only three days of rest after Brugge and are missing two forwards and three defenders, while Paris FC had more than six days and scored heavily in their last outing. Lens's home push is real, and they beat Paris FC twice before, but the chance balance favours Paris FC, and that's why I'm siding with them.
Den Haag against Heerenveen: Heerenveen average about 1.4 expected goals for and 1.3 against, with 6.0 shots on target a game, while Den Haag allow nearly 7 shots on target and sit around 1.2 for and 1.8 against. Den Haag are short up front. Heerenveen once drew 0-0 with Telstar despite 23 shots, so a stubborn low block can frustrate them, and Den Haag's home numbers are tamer than their average. Even so, the clearest measured gap is Heerenveen's shots against Den Haag's back line, and I'm siding with Heerenveen.
