Two games where the starting situation and the personnel decide more than the table does. One is the opener of a championship series after a long layoff for the host; the other is a home game for a struggling club against a side with a thin front line.
Korean Series Game 1 in Suwon. KT finished top of the table, rested about three weeks, and hands the ball to Davis Daniel, who has a 2.13 ERA and 1.16 at home, against a Samsung lineup that has never faced him this season. Samsung's Choi Won-tae carries a 6.94 ERA against KT and a very rough record in earlier Series games, and he was pulled early in his last playoff start. KT also won the last three meetings, and its bullpen is fully fresh while Samsung's has worked through a five-game playoff.
Samsung's route is real: hot bats, lefty hitters against a thin KT lefty bullpen, and KT hitters who may be rusty. But the starter gap and the rest weigh more for me, so I'm siding with KT to win.
In Busan, KCC is only 3-8 and Goyang 4-7, yet the match-up inside is lopsided. Goyang has been reported to be without big man O'Bryant, and in its last two games it gave up 32 points and 15 rebounds to one import and 18 and 4 to another. KCC has Shawn Long and Louis King, who scored 34 in the 16-point win over Wonju. KCC also has about a day more rest and the home crowd.
Goyang can win a shooting contest, as it did 97-96 two weeks ago, so I'm not asking for a blowout. That's why I'm siding with KCC to win by a few points at home.
