Both of these games are about a roster shape changing, not about the form tables. In Daegu, Sono get their second import back, and under this season's KBL rule that changes the middle two quarters more than any losing streak suggests. In Funabashi, Altiri have three real bigs again, and that hits the one place where Yokohama's ten-man roster is thinnest. In both games the recent numbers were built by older units.
KoGas and Sono are opposites. KoGas are a low-scoring, defensive, rebounding side that runs post play through Aluma and Ra Gun-ah. Sono live on three-point volume, leading the league in made threes, and give up the paint and the glass. In the KBL this season both imports can share the floor only in the second and third quarters, so the import count shapes those quarters.
That split shows up clearly in Sono's season. They won all five games they played with two imports, including the opener against KoGas, where Aluma got into foul trouble and fouled out in the third quarter. They went 1-5 in the six games with one import, losing by one to eight points. The ugly paint and rebounding numbers come from those one-import nights. Olujobi, a heavy interior body, is now officially registered and joins O'Bryant, who played heavy minutes in his last game.
The key matchups: Sono take far more threes than KoGas, and KoGas have been shooting poorly from deep, with both of their recent home losses coming on cold shooting nights. Aluma's fouls against a big body are the swing in the middle quarters. KoGas have the rest edge and Belangel back running the offence, and they should win the glass. But with two imports again, Sono's volume should decide a close game. That's why I'm siding with Sono.
In the other game, Altiri are a perimeter team built around Newbill, and now they have Davis, Pardon and the returned Kai Sotto inside. Yokohama are without McGusty and Kai King and lean on Kotsar, with Richardson as the only other big. They have conceded heavy rebounding numbers to sized opponents like Kobe, Kawasaki and Sendai, and they foul a lot. Their best weapon is their hands: Yokohama force turnovers, and Altiri leaked them badly in October.
Altiri's recent turnover counts are much lower, though, and Sotto gives them a third big to cover Pardon's foul trouble. Add Altiri's extra three-point attempts and free throws against a foul-prone Yokohama front line, and the home side comes out a few points ahead on the glass and at the line. That's why I'm backing Altiri to win at home.
