[2026 UEFA Nations League] Italy vs France Preview and Analysis Kick-off: November 12, 19:45 UTC
France will look to keep the ball for long spells, while Italy will try to win it back and create chances in the box. Both sides have changes to the player combinations that have supported those approaches.
1. Match overview and team form
Italy, coached by Roberto Mancini, managed 12 shots inside the penalty area despite having just 45% possession in their October home game against Türkiye (Data Center). Giovanni Di Lorenzo crossed from the right for Gianluca Scamacca to score, while Nicolò Barella’s free kick led to a Riccardo Calafiori header. Italy created chances through their right flank and set pieces rather than by dominating possession. But Türkiye also found an equaliser when a low cross reached a forward at the far post. It is also worth keeping in mind that six of Italy’s seven group-stage points came from their two wins over Türkiye when assessing their second-place position.
Moise Kean and centre-back Gianluca Mancini have been left out of the squad (Virgilio, November 8 and 10). Francesco Pio Esposito, who came off the bench to score against Türkiye, is the likely replacement for Kean, with Giorgio Scalvini expected in central defence. Mancini said he would wait until the morning of the match to decide on his attack (Giornale Rossoblu, November 12). He has also said Italy lack a specialist build-up midfielder (Goal.com, November 11), so Barella and Sandro Tonali’s first forward pass after winning the ball will matter.
France, coached by Zinedine Zidane, have gone unbeaten in their four competitive matches, with three wins and a draw, but both of their away wins were 1-0. Their expected goals in those games were 1.17 and 1.22 (Data Center). Kylian Mbappé is unavailable (Eurosport, November 11), Aurélien Tchouaméni has left the squad through injury, and Manu Koné is also absent from the squad list (Footéo and Orange Sport, November 11). Rayan Cherki, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué, who helped turn around the game against Belgium, are likely to start, though the forward line has not yet been settled. France will qualify for the quarter-finals with a draw. Both teams play again three days later, and rain is forecast in Milan on matchday (yr.no, November 11).
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is France’s response immediately after losing the ball against Italy’s forward passing. France can keep possession through Cherki and Lucas Da Cunha, but the midfield combination changes with Tchouaméni and Koné missing, leaving different players to stop Italy’s first pass forward. If Italy move the ball quickly through Barella and Tonali to Pio Esposito or out to the right, France’s central defence will have to deal with that attack as a pairing with limited time together. In October’s away game against France, Italy had 14 shots to France’s 18, but their expected goals were 1.46 against France’s 1.21 (Data Center). France’s higher shot count did not prevent Italy from creating better chances inside the box.
The other matchup is the delivery to the far side from both teams’ flanks. Di Lorenzo’s crosses and Barella’s free kicks created Italy’s scoring routes against Türkiye. France attack down the flanks through Olise and Doué, and the two combined for each other’s goals against Belgium. France can target the space at the far post that Italy left open against Türkiye. In turn, Italy’s crosses and set pieces will test a reshuffled France central defence. L’Équipe (November 10) expected either Ibrahima Konaté or Jérémy Jacquet to partner Dayot Upamecano.
If France take the lead, they can manage the clock by keeping possession, while Italy are likely to push their full-backs forward and send in more crosses. That would also leave space behind Italy’s defence for France’s wide attackers. If Italy score first, France will have to commit more players forward, although the players who came on in the second half to turn the game against Belgium are likely to start this time.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Italy to win by moving forward quickly after regaining possession and using set pieces to target the weakened France midfield and central defence. France also have a route to goal through their wide attackers, so we expect both teams to score. Italy could recreate the Türkiye goal in which Barella’s free kick was headed in by Calafiori, using players expected to start today. Reports that Olise is fit to play also support France’s threat from the flanks (France Info, November 11).
The market has France as favourites, pointing to their first-place standing in the group and Zidane’s unbeaten record. We give more weight to Italy’s attacking routes because both of France’s away wins were by a single goal and several of the regular midfielders and defenders who helped secure those results are missing today. Still, if France score first from the flank and then hold the ball for long spells, Italy may struggle to turn the game around even if they increase their crossing.
[Final picks · by market · based on Betman listings] Full-time result: Italy win. Italy’s forward play after winning possession and their set pieces directly target the missing players in France’s midfield and central defence. Handicap +1: Italy win. Even if France take the lead, Italy’s crosses and set pieces offer a route to an equaliser, while France have fewer attacking options on the bench to extend their lead. Over/Under 2.5: Over. Both teams have ways to target weakened areas, and the side trailing after the first goal will commit more players forward.
