Three J2 matches on a holiday card, and in each one the table gap and the shape of the chances point to the stronger side creating the better shots against a team whose results have been poor for weeks.
Kofu against Albirex Niigata: Albirex sit second while Kofu are near the bottom, scoring just 11 goals in 14 league games and giving up about five and a half shots on target a game. Albirex take around five on target themselves, and their open style tends to produce the first goal. Their away record is weaker than their home one, and only one midfielder is doubtful with no lineup out yet, so I am not leaning on squad news. The likely flow is Albirex getting a goal or two through volume while Kofu hunt for a set piece. That is why I'm siding with Albirex Niigata.
Miyazaki against Tochigi City: Miyazaki are sixth and Tochigi are eighteenth with no win in ten and over two goals conceded per game. At home Miyazaki out-shoot opponents on target by a wide margin, and their last few games show that edge rising. Tochigi keep the ball but create little with it, so Miyazaki should get a lead through a transition or a set piece and then manage it. Absence data for this match is simply not observed, so it plays no part. That's why I'm siding with Miyazaki at home.
Yokohama FC against Blaublitz Akita: Yokohama are fourth and strong at home with 13 goals in 5 games, while Akita have not won away in six and have scored only 3 times. Yokohama want the ball and will face a deep block, so box entry is their job, but Akita offer little threat going the other way. A single home goal is the central outcome. Lineups are not out and the supplier absence lists are empty, so I rely on the structure rather than names. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama FC at home.
