Both of these games pair a favourite whose big wins come from one specific mechanism with an underdog that doesn't give that mechanism up. Mikawa blow teams out by shooting against sides that also cough up the ball. Tokyo blow teams out by dominating the glass. Shinshu protect the ball against low-pressure defences, and Kobe have held their own on the boards in every recent game.
Mikawa against Shinshu. Mikawa are a shot-quality team, hitting 52 percent from the field and 43 percent from three, and they usually break games open in the third quarter. Their defence doesn't take the ball away, though: one to eight steals a game. Shinshu run their offence through Kevon Harris, who had a triple-double at Akita, alongside Daum and Lee inside. They win the rebounding battle most nights and shoot 82 percent at the line. Their two blowout losses both came with 19 to 21 turnovers against teams that stole 11 to 13 times, which is pressure Mikawa don't usually apply. Against teams outside the bottom of the table, Mikawa's margins were +5, -7, +6, +17, +9, +8 and -15, and only the hot-shooting Saga game got away. Mikawa are also playing their third game in five days. I expect Shinshu to stay within range through the glass and the foul line, so I'm siding with Shinshu.
Kobe against the Sunrockers. Tokyo's lopsided wins (+24, +32, +43) all came with an 18-to-24 rebound edge over teams that collapsed on the glass. Against teams that held the boards, Tokyo's margins ran from -11 to +7. Kobe have matched or out-rebounded every one of their last ten opponents, and Aimaq has 13 to 23 rebounds in each of his last three games while rarely getting into foul trouble. Childs gets to the line, and Kobe's last five home games ended between -10 and +8. Kobe have played three games since McDaniels left and their floor hasn't dropped. Tokyo should lead at half on their strong first quarters, but with the glass level, Kobe's fourth quarters keep it within reach. That's why I'm backing Kobe at home.
