Kashiwa look like the dominant home side on paper, but the numbers underneath are closer than the name and the recent scoreline suggest. They create a lot, yet they also give a lot away, and Daejeon are a compact side with a better chance balance than their continental results show.
Kashiwa average around 16 shots at home, but their chances for and against are level, roughly 1.8 and 1.7 expected goals. In three of their last five games they conceded between 2.4 and 3.1 expected goals. The 4-0 win over Urawa came while they were out-created in chance quality, so that score owes a lot to finishing.
Daejeon sit in a compact shape, hold a bit under half the ball and rely on counters and set pieces. Over their recent sample they create about 1.5 expected goals and concede about 0.6, and they won corners in bulk in recent games. Their continental form is poor, with a draw at Shanghai Port and a narrow loss to Kobe, but that is a thin base.
Both sides played on Oct 31 and have league games soon, so rotation is possible on either side. No absence is confirmed; the listed rows are only injury flags. I expect Kashiwa to have more of the ball with the game decided by one goal either way. That's why I'm siding with Daejeon not to lose.
