A home side that is hard to score against at its own ground meets a high-scoring visitor whose numbers come mostly from home games. Kashima play with control in front of their own crowd, while Kashiwa trade goals freely and give away chances at the back.
Over their last 20 home games Kashima have won 9, lost 1 and never drawn, scoring 25 and conceding 6, with 8 clean sheets. Kashiwa score 2.5 a game recently, but away their output drops, and in the four games with xG data they concede more than Kashima do (1.4 against 0.8 per game) while allowing about 12.6 shots. Kashima have also won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Squad flags on both sides are single-source and unconfirmed, so I don't lean on them. Both teams have continental games next week, but Kashiwa travel abroad first. I expect Kashima to hold territory, restrict the counters and take one or two goals from a leaky back line. That's why I'm siding with Kashima.
