This match is priced as if Denver arrives gutted, while Houston arrives with a hole of its own. The market has leaned hard toward the home side, but the picture underneath is less settled than the number suggests.
Houston is 7-3 and shoots the ball well from three, with a lot of volume. Its two most recent games were losses against decent opposition. Denver normally wins through Jokic at the hub, Murray in the pick-and-roll and size on the glass.
The key matchup is Jokic against a Houston team with both centres, Capela and Adams, listed out. If Jokic plays, there is nobody natural to guard or rebound against him. He played 36 minutes in the last game with a big all-round line, and every Denver name on the questionable list also played that game, so these look like fresh minor knocks or management tags rather than long absences.
If some of the wings sit, Denver's bench-heavy rotation is exposed to Houston's threes, but a full-strength or near-full-strength Denver is a very different team from the one the price describes. Denver also holds a 6-4 edge over the last ten meetings.
The game should be decided in the first-half minutes of Denver's rotation and by whether Houston's bigs get into foul trouble. That's why I'm siding with Denver to win outright.
