This is Hoffenheim's shot volume against a Schalke side that has barely threatened anyone in the league for weeks. Hoffenheim are tired and patched up at the back after a European trip, but Schalke's attack has been weak over several games with the same players, not just one bad afternoon. The whole match turns on one question: can Schalke score even once? Their realistic routes are set pieces and late breaks, not open play.
Hoffenheim under Ilzer press high and shoot a lot, around seventeen shots a game recently, but they defend softly and have conceded sixteen in eight league games. Schalke under Muslic sit deep with under forty percent of the ball and rely on their block and Karius. In their last four league games their chances added up to well under a goal each time, with a single shot on target against both Koln and Leipzig, and they have four goals in eight games. Muslic himself has said the team lacks attacking punch.
The key matchup is Schalke's attack against Hoffenheim's reserve back line. Hajdari, Hranac, Gendrey and Coufal are all out, so Kabak, Machida, Rots and Abraha played at Crystal Palace on Thursday. That makeshift line still kept Palace to very few clear chances. At the other end, Kramaric, Asllani and Lemperle should produce shots against the low block, though Hoffenheim managed only two on target in their defeat at Bremen.
The absences mainly cut Hoffenheim's defensive depth and bench, not their attack, and those players already missed the Palace game. Schalke get Gosens and El-Faouzi back and may switch to a back four, which is still untested in attack.
I expect Hoffenheim on the front foot with fresher legs in the first hour and Schalke defending deep. Schalke's best window is the last twenty minutes, from a corner with Katic or a substitute Dzeko, against tired legs. But they average only a few corners a game, and if Hoffenheim are also wasteful, the match can stay goalless for a long time.
Schalke's lack of threat has been measured over several games, and it weighs more than Hoffenheim's leaky season. That's why I'm siding with a game where at least one side, most likely Schalke, fails to score.
