These three matches share one shape. Each side has its own clear way to a goal, and each defence is missing the players who would normally close the other team's route. In Heerenveen, Twente and Monza, the patched back lines come into the match with this week's absences still unresolved.
Heerenveen against Feyenoord. Feyenoord will have the ball and keep creating down the right through Hadj Moussa and Read, and they have scored in every league match I looked at. But their back line is patched up and has conceded in each of its last six matches. Heerenveen are happy without the ball. Their wins over Nijmegen and Den Haag came from counters, and that is exactly the space a stand-in centre-back pair leaves when Feyenoord push up. Heerenveen also scored in four of the last five meetings.
Twente against Ajax. Ajax's front pair of Arokodare and Ouazane are fit and fast, and they meet a Twente defence without Lemkin and Bruns. That is the same route Utrecht used to win in Enschede. Twente's left side and their late runners meet an Ajax midfield missing Amrabat, and on the road Ajax have been giving up plenty of chances. Both teams scored in all four of the last league meetings at Twente.
Monza against Atalanta. Atalanta are down to their fourth or fifth centre-back pairing, with Hien, Kossounou and Pompei all out. Monza have Varela scoring and winning penalties, plus Robinson's crosses and set pieces. At the other end, Monza's back three, which conceded three, four and two recently, loses Birindelli on the right just as Atalanta's De Ketelaere and Zalewski link up on that side. Neither keeper has been saving more than the shots allow.
That's why in all three matches I'm siding with goals at both ends.
