Two different matches, two different structures. In the Dutch game both sides trade chances and neither defends well. In the Portuguese game one side creates and limits chances while the other leaks and barely threatens.
Groningen against Sparta Rotterdam: Groningen average about two goals scored and two conceded over their last ten, and Sparta have seen three or more goals in every one of their last ten games. Groningen produce around six shots on target a game, and Sparta have conceded in bunches, four to Heerenveen among them. Groningen's back line is short again, with Jeng and Mercera out for a third straight game and van der Laan doubtful, so the weakness is the current reality and not news. Sparta still score on the road, as the 3-3 at Go Ahead Eagles showed. The old head-to-head is low scoring, and Groningen's cup loss to Emmen after nineteen shots shows finishing can fail, but both current rosters point to an open game with goals. That's why I'm on plenty of goals here.
Maritimo against Santa Clara: Maritimo are 14th and concede over two a game, with opponents out-shooting them on target by roughly two to one. Their 0-5 loss at Guimaraes and the 1-2 at Porto were backed by the chances, not bad luck. Santa Clara sit fourth, have conceded only six in nine, and create about four shots on target a game against Maritimo's thin attack. The suspension of their forward Fernando costs depth but their chance creation has not collapsed. Santa Clara draw often, so I want the stake protected if it ends level, but a narrow away win is the most likely way this plays out. That's why I'm siding with Santa Clara on the road.
