This match comes down to Galatasaray's serve against a promoted side's reception that has been tested only once at this level. In that one test Onikisubat held for two sets and then fell apart. Galatasaray have kept their early sets even against the two best receiving teams in the league. Whether Onikisubat take a set depends on how they start, because the pressure builds as the match goes on.
Galatasaray are built on a foreign spine. Micah Ma'a sets for Stephen Maar, who passes and attacks, with Roamy Alonso at opposite and Can Koc on the other outside. They score through Maar and Koc on side-out and serve hard enough to keep opponents out of system. When they lose, it's in long tight sets against elite teams, as at Halkbank. Even there they won the first set, and against champions Ziraat in the Super Cup they took the first two sets and won 3-1.
Onikisubat have just come up, with four foreigners around a Turkish core led by captain Hakan Polat. In their first top-flight match they stayed level with Gebze for two sets, winning one of them in a long deuce. Then they collapsed in sets three and four, and the match reports said they couldn't cope with Gebze's serving. Gebze are a mid-table server. Galatasaray serve harder.
Neither side reports an absence. Galatasaray's six comes from their last match. Both teams have had a full week of rest, so there's no fatigue angle.
Onikisubat's best chance is set one, when they're fresh and swinging freely with nothing to lose. If Galatasaray get through that start with their serve working, the later sets should open up the way Gebze's did.
That's why I'm backing Galatasaray to win without dropping a set: their serve against this reception is the biggest edge on the court.
