A meeting of styles at the top of J1: Kashiwa want the ball, and FC Tokyo are happy without it. Tokyo's current league side has stopped conceding and does its damage after the hour. Kashiwa score plenty but leave space behind when they commit players forward. Who wins this match depends on whose strongest phase meets the other side's weakest.
Under Matsuhashi, Tokyo keep games tight early and then surge. Against Urawa it was level at the break, and three goals followed after Omori and Kein Sato came on. Against Verdy the substitutes again added the late goals. Their league side has conceded nothing in five games and allowed Urawa almost nothing while having less of the ball. They also carry a set-piece threat through Scholz. Tokyo have won all four recent home games without conceding.
Kashiwa under Ricardo Rodriguez are a true possession side, with plenty of shots and 22 league goals in ten. The cost is at the back: 17 conceded in ten, and Nagoya scored three from just nine shots against them four days ago. Right centre-back Baba is out with a knee injury. First-choice keeper Wakahara went off with a second suspected concussion in eight days, which may leave a reserve keeper starting a build-up that runs through him.
Tokyo are short of full-backs, but they kept those clean sheets with the replacements already in place, so that is less of a hole than it looks. Kashiwa also have the heavier schedule, with an Asian run and a trip to Kashima three days later. Expect Kashiwa to have the ball, Tokyo to sit in shape and win it off the build-up, and Tokyo's bench to change the game around the hour. That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo to win at home.
